Brexit risks assessment made easy

Instructions on how to use the latest procedure to assess the probability of a desired or feared Brexit outcome on a day-to-day basis.

It is time for us to be more scientific and less emotional in our assessment of what is likely to happen on the Brexit deadline in March 2019.

Let’s be logical. There are only three possible outcomes of the Brexit issue.

These are: BREXIT COMPLETE BREXIT LITE BACK TO THE EU

Choose which of the three you want to see happen. Write these headings at the top of a sheet of paper.

Please note that BREXIT COMPLETE would result from the so-call “No Deal” event . BREXIT LITE accords more or less with Mrs. Theresa May’s “Chequers Deal.” BACK TO THE EU is the result favoured by “remainers.”

Under the heading of your choice draw a calibrated line like a thermometer with the value 100 at the top and zero at the bottom. The highest value reflects your greatest hope regarding Brexit and the lowest value your greatest fear in the same regard.

Mark the point on the line that indicates in percentage terms the chance of your most desired outcome turning up trumps (no allusion intended). If, for example, you think that there is a 50/50 chance of a favorable outcome the you mark will be placed half-way up (or down) the line you have drawn.

Now add or subtract percentage points according to incoming data as listed below. The same item of data will naturally prompt different reactions from people in accord with their respective point of view.

Example: Imput datum: Frau Merckel promises full support to the Chequers plan.

Reaction BREXIT COMPLETE / BC: -3; BREXIT LITE / BL: + 4; BACK TO EU / BTEU: -2

Let’s continue:

A: German automobile makers insist all should be done to keep Britain in the EU.

B: Boris Johnson lambasts Theresa May with increased vigour, saying she is “up the creek.”

C: Tony Blair declares that Brexit must be stopped at all costs, by military intervention if need be.

D: Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn were spotted together conversing in a dark corner of a night club.

E: Lord Heseltine challenges Mr. Rees-Mogg to a duel on Hampstead Heath. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage have offered their services as Seconds.

F: British stocks and Sterling rise sharply. Insiders must know something.

G: Negotiators Raab and Barnier shake hands ten seconds longer than usual.

H. There has been a sighting of Mrs. Thatcher’s ghost inside No. 10 Downing Street.

Await fresh data. Beware, some of these items may be FAKE NEWS.

If your rating rises by more than 10 points, give yourself a break, have binge or send a bouquet to your wife or other lady.

Comments