Statistics, Polls and Percentages - Both Audio and Text

I heard, a couple days ago, the Austin Armadillos spent thirty million dollars for some slugger named Peru Whose last year’s on-base-average, from the year before, had doubled from a pretty wimpy POINT-O-ONE - to a whopping POINT-O-TWO, And then dropped twenty million more for a guy named Lefty Wright who’d dropped his ERA to half of what he’d had before, Figuring if they upped his “innings-pitched” by 12% - he’d get a chance to prove his worth, and shave it even more. Taking risks with players like Peru and Lefty Wright - who’d trimmed his ERA from 25 to 12.6 - Showed why Abner Doubleday the 10th - (the franchise owner) - often puzzles people by the players that he picks. A really big “statistics” guy, he often sticks his neck out and bets a ton of money on the numbers he confronts. His staff compiles “percentages” and “averages” galore on everything from - “hit-by-pitch” to “base-on-balls” to “bunts”. He looks for little signs that point to - “probable potential”, and implements the algorithms born within his staff To zero in on where he feels the “good” can likely double… and where, by taking chances, he can cut the “bad” in half. He uses all these numbers to select his starting pitcher, along with those he’s gathered on that day’s opposing team, Considering things from temperature, humidity, and wind speed, to - if their starter lays his thumb beside - or on - the seam! Now…I’m aware that stats and polls are very often useful, and I give Abner credit for the effort that he makes, But 10% of this and that - and polls that point to “doubling” - Even when they’re actually true, can lead to big mistakes! For instance --- Hearing on the news that robberies fell by 10% from January 1st until the first day of July Doesn’t mean we’re safe to leave our doors unlocked at night when break-ins on our side o’ town are at an all time high! Knowing that the rate of home invasions was, in fact, holding tight to somewhere close to thirty-three a day, dropping down by three-and-a-third to a scary twenty-nine isn’t exactly going to help us sleep when we’re away. And saying someone’s core support has “doubled” sounds impressive, but even if it has increased to twice it’s former size… That can mean from - four to eight, or, 12 to 24 - which means, of course…although it’s true…it’s not that great a rise. Political polls are gathered by, at times, dishonest people, and if you take the time to think them through and break them down, Often you will come to find the survey that was taken was done by -- “core supporters” – and in just one part of town! They tend to canvas neighborhoods where records show constituents that vote the way that they do, by as high as 10 to 1, Occupy most every house, then call the local newsrooms and tell them what their survey shows…but not how it was done! So, when you hear the know-it-alls expounding their “statistics”, Or citing polls that seem a little fishy, bear in mind… 10% can be a lot…or actually next to nothing…. And, “doubling up” and, “down-by-half,” should always be - defined! BTW: I plan to post many of my AUDIO files on the soup over the next few months, most from my 4 new AUDIO-CDs, along with many more text files from my books of verse. (Only a few CDs and books left -- 1-11-21). Because, as with most academically undisciplined poets, depending entirely on the mood I’m in at writing time, my pieces vary greatly from meaninglessly comical to meaningfully poignant, and a few are, admittedly, irreverent. If you happen to enjoy “traditional verse” - and appreciate great variety, check out my website’s at: WWW,WRITEROFBOOKS.COM --- or Google me...after 58 years of penning verse and authoring childrens and suspense books, I’m easy to reach! I've also got a bunch of my verse posted on Youtube, and a few samples listed on Ebay, both findable by simply searching: "Mark Stellinga". Cheers, Mark